North Korea

Douglas Dreger
Associate professor of geophysics
Phone: (510) 643-1719
E-mail: dreger@seismo.berkeley.edu
Media Relations contact: Robert Sanders, (510) 643-6998 or rsanders@berkeley.edu

Expertise: Dreger is working on a project to better distinguish the seismic signatures of a nuclear detonation from those of an earthquake. Seismic waves carry distinct signatures that can be used to determine details about their source.

Per Peterson
Professor and former chair of nuclear engineering
Phone: (510) 643-7749
E-mail: peterson@nuc.berkeley.edu
Media Relations contact: Sarah Yang, (510) 643-7741 or scyang@berkeley.edu

Expertise: Peterson's research focuses on problems in energy and environmental systems, including inertial confinement fusion, high-temperature reactors, high level nuclear waste processing, and nuclear materials management.

Robert Powell
Professor of political science
Phone: (510) 642-4635
E-mail: rpowell@berkeley.edu
Media Relations contact: Kathleen Maclay, (510) 643-5651 or kmaclay@berkeley.edu

Expertise: International relations, deterrence theory, and the use of game theory modeling of international conflict.

Powell is the author of numerous journal articles, such as "Nuclear Deterrence Theory, Nuclear Proliferation and National Missile Defense," "The Inefficient Use of Power" and "Defending Against Terrorist Attacks with Limited Resources." He is the author of several books, including "Nuclear Deterrence Theory: The Search for Credibility" (1990) and "In the Shadow of Power: States and Strategies in International Politics" (1999).

Daniel Sargent
Assistant professor of history
Phone: (510) 643-3159
E-mail: daniel.sargent@berkeley.edu
Media Relations contact: Kathleen Maclay, (510) 643-5651 or kmaclay@berkeley.edu

Expertise: U.S. foreign policy, the history of U.S. foreign relations, and global and international history. He is interested in the challenge that North Korea presents to the Obama administration, particularly in terms of U.S. enforcement of nuclear non-proliferation and what U.S. policy towards nuclear proliferation may become.

"For perhaps the first time in history, a small and reckless state is on the cusp of becoming a nuclear power," says Sargent. "While Israel and Pakistan are 'small' powers in most respects, neither is reckless and both are counterbalanced by powerful local adversaries. It's intriguing that there are no obvious historical precedents for this, with the possible exception of Cuba in 1962."

Should the U.S. and the international community fail to stop North Korea's nuclear program, their inaction "may signal a broader dispersion of nuclear capabilities – all of which will increase the likelihood of nuclear weapons being used in anger," says Sargent.

Steven Vogel
Assistant professor of political science
Phone: (510) 642-4658
E-mail: svogel@berkeley.edu
Media Relations contact: Kathleen Maclay, (510) 643-5651, kmaclay@berkeley.edu

Expertise: Vogel has written extensively on Japanese politics, industrial policy, trade and defense policy. He also has worked as a reporter for the Japan Times in Tokyo and as a freelance journalist in France. Vogel follows Japan's internal debate about the impact there of nuclear activity by North Korea.

Steven Weber
Professor of political science
Phone: (510) 642-8739 (office) or (510) 928-0657 (cell)
E-mail: steve_weber@berkeley.edu
Media Relations contact: Kathleen Maclay, (510) 643-5651 or kmaclay@berkeley.edu

Expertise: National security and politics. Weber was a consultant to the U.S. Commission on National Security in the 21st Century, has held academic fellowships with the Council on Foreign Relations and was director of UC Berkeley's of Institute of International Studies.

Despite the recent (May 2009) headlines about new nuclear testing by North Korea, Weber says the country of almost 23 million people has not demonstrated any substantially new capabilities. But he also says that North Korea's threat to international security remains moderately high "because at the end of the day, this is an unstable regime with a massive conventional army arrayed on the border of the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea, a small nuclear capability, and at least a short to medium range ballistic missile capability."

North Korea is fond of "saber rattling," says Weber, but beyond that Western analysts "trying to imagine what they would do if they were North Korean leader Kim Jong Il" haven't been able to say definitively what North Korea's intends or is trying to signal' by turning up the political heat.